Predict and Prepare: Smart Order Fulfilment for Black Friday

As we enter the final months of 2024, businesses across the globe are bracing for a whirlwind of activity. With major events like Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas shopping, and countless other key dates on the horizon, ecommerce faces more significant demand fluctuations than ever before. From back-to-school season to unique days like International Coffee Day or Men’s Mental Health Awareness Month, there are countless moments when your business might see a sudden surge in orders.

But with all these opportunities come challenges. How do you ensure you're fully prepared for these busy periods and make order fulfilment successful? How do you know how much stock you'll need, especially during peak events like Black Friday? This is where a little forecasting magic, powered by AI and other modern tools, can make all the difference. Proper planning can be the key to avoiding costly stockouts or frustrating overstock situations, ensuring you're ready for anything the season throws.

In this guide, we’ll explore how to use these technologies to predict and prepare for the busy periods ahead, ensuring you’re ready to make the most of Black Friday and beyond.

How to Prepare and Plan for Order Fulfilment Fluctuations

Planning for busy times in eCommerce can be a challenge. With unpredictable purchasing trends, limited data, and technical constraints, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. While you can’t predict everything—unexpected events and external factors can always impact sales—you can definitely start preparing your order fulfilment process for peak periods like Black Friday.

Let’s break it down into four simple steps to help you prepare.

1. Identifying Key Sales Periods and Trends

The first thing to do when gearing up for busy times like Black Friday 2024 is to figure out when your peaks happen. Sure, we all know about the obvious ones—Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the holiday rush—but every business is a little different. Your busiest times might not be during the significant events that dominate the news.

For most businesses, the second half of the year tends to be action-packed:

• October: Halloween, a key moment to build momentum before the big sales, plus fun days like National Cat Day
• November: The big one—Black Friday deals, Cyber Monday—the month where giants like Currys and Amazon dominate the headlines
• December: The gifting frenzy—Christmas, Hanukkah, and year-end promotions

But just because these dates get a lot of attention doesn’t mean they’ll automatically be your busiest order fulfilment opportunities. Some businesses see a surge outside the traditional sales calendar, depending on what they sell or their customers. 

Maybe your biggest days come right after Black Friday, when people are hunting for last-minute deals, or even after payday when shoppers finally grab those items they’ve been eyeing. But how do you find out when your peaks are?: 

1. eCommerce Calendars
   Using an eCommerce calendar can help you track significant dates like Black Friday, holiday sales and some less apparent events. This gives you a clearer view of when to start prepping stock, staffing, and shipping.

2. Stay Ahead of Industry Trends
   While events like Black Friday advertising might drive traffic for many businesses, others may thrive around niche moments. Fashion brands might see spikes at the start of a new season, while tech businesses could find success during big product launches.

3. Understand Your Customers’ Behavior
   No one knows your customers like you do. Maybe they rush to buy right after Black Friday 2024 or shop later in the season. Either way, paying attention to your customers' buying habits is key to figuring out when you’ll need to ramp up your order fulfilment.

Ultimately, your sales calendar will be unique to your business. And by knowing what your busiest times are, you can fine-tune your eCommerce strategy—from stock levels to staffing, all the way to delivery. That way, you'll be more than ready when Black Friday 2024 and the holiday rush hit.

2. Analysing Historical Data

After pinpointing your key sales periods, the next step is to dive into your historical data. Why? Because past performance is one of the best indicators of future demand. Whether it’s for Black Friday 2024, holiday sales, or other peaks, historical data allows you to understand how your business has performed during similar periods. Looking back gives you the foundation to predict what’s coming and plan for it.

By reviewing past sales patterns, you can spot recurring trends. Did you see a surge in orders after a specific marketing push? Was there an unexpected drop right before Black Friday, only for orders to skyrocket the following week? Understanding these shifts in your sales helps you better anticipate when you’ll need more stock, how to prepare your staff, and how to manage order fulfilment efficiently.

Historical data also gives you insight into customer behaviour. It’s possible that while Amazon Black Friday and Currys Black Friday sales dominate the market, your biggest surge comes the week after when shoppers are hunting for those last-minute deals. Maybe your key moments aren’t on traditional busy days like Black Friday but around payday or when customers finally purchase items that have been sitting in their carts.

What Tools Can Help?

Analysing historical data works best if you’ve got at least a year or two of trading history under your belt. Different businesses have different needs, so choosing the right tools tailored to your size and goals is crucial. This approach will help you harness insights effectively. Let’s identify some examples at various levels:

For Smaller Businesses 

If you’re just starting out or running on a tight budget, free or low-cost options like Google Analytics can make a difference. Many basic eCommerce platforms come with built-in reporting features as well. These tools help you track trends in site traffic and sales peaks. They might not be as advanced as larger systems, but they provide solid insights that won’t break the bank.

For Growing Businesses

As your business begins to expand, it’s time to elevate your tools. Consider platforms like Shopify or BigCommerce, which offer more sophisticated analytics. These systems dive deeper into customer behaviour and product performance, giving you the detailed reports you need to anticipate demand spikes. With this information, you can fine-tune your inventory and staffing strategies to align with those busy periods.

For Larger Businesses

For established brands, having the right analytics tools is key. Advanced platforms like Salesforce or IBM provide powerful analytics capabilities. They analyse your historical data and assess market trends and competitor behaviour. This comprehensive approach allows for accurate demand predictions, giving you a competitive edge.

Selecting the right tool depends on your business size and needs. However, the objective remains: use your historical data to create a solid strategy. That way, when significant dates like Black Friday or Cyber Monday arrive, you’ll be ready to take advantage of the opportunities.

3. Applying Forecasting to Black Friday Preparations 

After analysing your past sales and spotting trends, you’ve likely noticed specific patterns in your order fulfilment. However, while historical data is a great starting point, today’s forecasting tools can go even further. Black Friday isn’t just about knowing it’ll be busy—it’s about knowing when and how busy and using more innovative forecasting tools to stay ahead of the rush.

Using Data to Predict Demand

Now that you’ve identified your key sales periods and studied your historical data, it’s time to put those insights into action. Look at your previous Black Friday sales, Cyber Monday orders, and other high-traffic days. What’s stayed consistent? What surprised you?

While past data shows you the big picture, modern forecasting tools can dive deeper, predicting the exact demand spikes you’ll face this year. Instead of relying on general assumptions, you can now use your business’s own data to make smarter, more specific decisions.

AI and Real-Time Forecasting

With real-time forecasting tools, you can stay ahead by continuously monitoring stock levels, customer activity, and purchasing behaviours as they happen. AI-powered tools can even predict trends you might not have spotted yourself. For example, you could detect an upcoming surge in demand for a product just by tracking abandoned carts or customer search habits in the weeks leading up to Black Friday.

AI also helps you uncover patterns you might’ve missed—whether it’s peak traffic periods during payday or specific times of the day when customers tend to shop more. By combining what you already know about your business with AI-driven insights, you’ll be better prepared for those demand spikes—right down to the inventory on your shelves.

Choosing the right forecasting approach: 

There are a few different approaches to forecasting that can help you stay ready for whatever comes:

• Short-term: Focuses on the days or weeks ahead, predicting demand for specific sales periods like Black Friday.
• Long-term: Looks at broader sales trends over time to help you plan for busy seasons or year-round fluctuations.
• Active vs. passive forecasting: Plan based on what you know from your historical data, but be prepared for surprises like an unexpected bestseller.
• Internal vs. external factors: Use both your own sales data and external trends, such as competitor moves or market changes, to fine-tune your strategy.

Once you’ve nailed down your forecasts, the next step is preparing your operations—whether it’s increasing staffing, coordinating logistics, or refining your fulfilment process. We’ll cover all of that in the next section, so stay tuned.

4. Stock Management and Staffing Based on Predictions

Now that you’ve figured out when your business will be busy, it’s time to focus on managing stock and staffing effectively. Proper preparation is critical to ensuring seamless order fulfilment during peak periods. Let’s take a closer look at what you need to monitor and prepare for, especially as you gear up for Black Friday 2024 and beyond.

Stock Management

First up is stock management. You don’t want this year’s best-seller to run out within an hour or to be left with excess inventory. Use predictive analytics to determine the optimal amount of stock to keep on hand. This way, you can avoid overstocking and ensure that you have enough of your most popular items.

Shipping and Timeframes

Next, let’s discuss shipping. Are your current shipping partners reliable? If you need to adjust shipping timeframes, communicate this clearly to your customers. Remember, 90% of shoppers say they’re unlikely to return after a poor online experience, which often includes delays in order fulfilment. 

Be proactive—monitor your delivery times and ensure your shipping capabilities are aligned with customer expectations, especially during high-traffic periods like Black Friday.

Supply Chain Alignment

Now, consider your supply chain. Aligning stock forecasts with what your suppliers can handle is crucial for timely replenishment. If you’re uncertain about how much stock you can get in during peak times, discuss your needs with suppliers well in advance. Having that connection can help ensure you’re not scrambling for inventory when sales surge during Black Friday deals.

Staffing Predictions

Lastly, let’s discuss staffing. Don’t worry if you currently don’t have the capacity to hire permanent team members to handle demand on a seasonal basis. Your finance department may not feel the benefit of hiring additional staff long-term, but that doesn’t mean you can’t manage busy periods effectively. 

Consider bringing on temporary staff or partnering with a third-party logistics provider (3PL). This strategy allows you to scale your workforce as needed during peak seasons, ensuring your order fulfilment process runs smoothly without overextending your existing team.

Reviewing and Adjusting After Peak Periods

Scaling your business up and down effectively isn’t just about being prepared for the busy periods—it’s about how you handle things when the rush dies down. Once the chaos of Black Friday is over, it’s time to shift gears. Do you just go back to business as usual? Not quite. You need to fine-tune your strategy, look at what worked (and what didn’t) and ensure you’re ready for the next spike, whether Christmas or another big event.

One of the toughest challenges for a growing eCommerce brand? Managing the ebb and flow without overstretching your resources—or losing the momentum you’ve built. Scaling down is just as important as scaling up, and getting that balance right will help you maintain smooth operations while staying agile for future opportunities.

Here are some practical tips for scaling your business both ways:

Partner with a 3PL
A solid Third-Party Logistics partner (3PL) is a game changer when it comes to scaling. They handle the heavy lifting of fulfilment during peak times, so you don’t have to. And when things slow down? You don’t have to worry about excess warehouse space or staff. They can adjust right alongside you.

Review and Learn
Post-peak periods aren’t just for catching your breath. Look back at your Black Friday (or any major sale) performance. Were your stock levels right? Did your delivery times meet expectations? Use that data to improve. The last thing you want is to make the same mistake twice.

Flexible Workforce
Think about your staffing. A mix of full-time and temporary workers gives you flexibility. You can ramp up quickly during busy periods and then scale down when things quieten without the headache of laying people off or carrying unnecessary labour costs.

Fine-Tune Your Forecasting
How accurate were your sales forecasts? If you didn’t hit the nail on the head, don’t worry—use what you’ve learned to adjust for next time. AI tools can help you predict demand, but your historical data is just as valuable. Compare and refine for better results next time.

Look Ahead
Once one peak period is done, don’t relax too much—you’ve got to get ready for the next one. Whether it’s Christmas or a summer sale, ensure your supply chain is agile, and your 3PL is prepped for the next rush.

Scaling down after peak periods is just as strategic as scaling up beforehand. Get it right, and you'll be ready for whatever comes next.

Wrapping Up: Your Order Fulfilment Strategy Unleashed

As we prepare for the whirlwind of activity in 2024, it's essential to take a proactive approach to order fulfilment. The busy periods, including Black Friday and holiday sales, can be overwhelming, but with careful planning, you can set your business up for success. By identifying key sales periods, analysing historical data, and leveraging AI tools, you'll be better equipped to handle the season's demands.

Remember, effective stock management, timely shipping, and a flexible staffing strategy are vital components of your eCommerce strategy. If you currently can’t hire permanent team members, don’t worry! You can still navigate busy periods smoothly by considering temporary staff or partnering with a third-party logistics provider (3PL).

Embrace the upcoming challenges with confidence, and you'll not only survive but thrive during peak periods like Black Friday 2024 and beyond.

Are you Ready to Optimise Your Black Friday Fulfilment?

At Core, we are passionate about your customer service. Make this Black Friday your most successful yet with our expert 3PL services. We provide late cut-offs, multi-channel fulfilment, and scalable solutions tailored to your business needs. Let us handle the logistics so you can focus on reaping the rewards of a successful sales season.

Contact us today and discover how we can elevate your order fulfilment and support your returns management during this peak period!